ASML.AS · Euronext Amsterdam
ASML Holding N.V.
€1,596.20Close 8 Oct 2026
Semiconductor equipment · Netherlands · Market cap ≈ €620.8B
ASML, based in Veldhoven, builds the lithography machines chipmakers use to print circuits on silicon. It is the only supplier of EUV machines, which every leading-edge chip factory needs.
Why it's here: The largest Dutch company and a monopoly in its niche. The question is what you pay for that.
ASML.AS vs S&P 500
Price only, EUR. S&P 500 in USD. S&P 500 +69%.
A rare breed. Few companies turn capital into cash this easily.
Return on capital
40.4%Great
Every 100 it keeps earns about 40 a year. That is elite.
Free cash flow
33.9%Great
Real cash left over in 9 of the last 9 years. About 34 of every 100 in sales becomes real cash.
Consistent growth
+20.3%/yrGreat
Sales per share grew 20% a year, rising in 10 of 10 years. A machine.
Margins
34.6%Great
Keeps 35 of every 100 in sales as operating profit, rising. That is pricing power.
Debt
Net cashGreat
More cash than debt. Nobody can force its hand.
Buybacks vs dilution
-1.5%/yrGreat
Bought back 7% of its own shares in 5 years. Your slice grows while you sleep.
Where the money goes · FY2025
Where the money comes from
- EUV machines36%
- DUV immersion (ArFi)32%
- Service & upgrades25%
- Other DUV machines5%
- Metrology & inspection3%
- Revenue€32.7B
- Cost of sales€15.4B47%
- Gross profit€17.3B53%
- R&D€4.7B14%
- Sales & admin€1.3B4%
- Operating profit€11.3B35%
- Tax€2.0B6%
- Net profit€9.6B29%
Return on capital
Margins
Shares outstanding
What it does with the cash
FY2025: 77% of free cash flow went back to owners.
Balance sheet · 31 Dec 2025
- Buy below
- €449.71
- Fair value
- €642.44
- Price
- €1,596.20
Today's price only works if earnings grow ~23% a year for a decade. The past 5 years delivered 20%.
The quick check
65× earnings for 39% returns on capital. The math is against you.
Five ways to value it
Price €1,596
Marketdaddy fair value
€642
Steady earnings × 26
60% below the price
Scenario range
€357 – €1,429
Bad case to good case
44% below the price
Graham number
€167
Graham's ceiling for careful investors
90% below the price
Lynch fair value
€593
Earnings × 24% growth
63% below the price
No-growth value
€247
If it never grows again
85% below the price
When most lenses sit far below the price, the market is betting on growth the past hasn't shown yet.
Margin: default until you answer question 03.
How the multiple is built
Your scenarios
Your turn. Drag the assumptions.
If it goes as expected
€858
The market does 8 to 10% a year. Ask more and every price gets stricter.
Your weighted fair value
€872
Today €1,596
A great price: below €610. That is your fair value minus a 30% safety cushion (default until you answer question 03).
Not there today. Add it to your watchlist with an alert at €610 and let the price come to you.
Demand is steady — sales rose in 10 of 10 years — but profits swung 12.7 points along the way. Steadier business than margins.
A wide band. Harder to see the future in it.
Worth knowing
Your call
Only you know what you really understand.
Could you explain how it makes money in one minute?
If you can't, you're guessing.
Do you know this world from your job or daily life?
A doctor reads medical companies better. A builder reads housing better. That is your edge.
Will people still need this in ten years?
Cars will still crash. People will still snore. Will this still be needed?
Do you know what could kill it?
A competitor, a new technology, a law. If you can name the danger, you can watch it.
Answer all four. Your safety margin in question 02 moves with you.
Revenue per share, up or down
Up in 10 of 10 years.
Where the growth came from · 2023–2025
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Sources
Figures from the 20-F for FY2025, filed with the SEC on 25 Feb 2026. Open the report
Monthly closing prices to 8 Oct 2026, adjusted for splits.
Marketdaddy does not own ASML. This is not investment advice.